The north-east’s economy is once again posting positive results. It is certainly not the ‘locomotive’ it once was, as not all the carriages are attached to the train. However, various recent figures – albeit tentatively – point to an ongoing turnaround: consumer and business confidence, the labour market, industrial clusters and exports. In short, after years of negative figures, positive ones are emerging from several quarters. These results still need to be reinforced; they remain weak and are not evenly distributed, but they offer encouragement on the path we have taken, which now needs to be consolidated. Yet whilst the economy has started to move forward again, we are struggling to shake off the ‘zero-point-something’ syndrome. This is the hallmark of the current phase: the slowness with which we are recovering. Let’s be clear: we are in good company with the rest of the country and Europe. Indeed, the North-East is showing more positive results. But compared with other European economies, the roots of our problems lie further back in time, and no one has been able to devise the necessary remedy. Consequently, picking up the pace today is more complicated and requires a more sustained momentum: the run-up is, and will remain, a long one.
Giornale di Vicenza, 30 December
Messaggero Veneto, 31 December 2015
Finegil newspapers, 3 January 2016
Corriere delle Alpi, 3 January 2016
This situation is also clearly illustrated by the research into the economic circumstances of people in the north-east (Community Media Research). The majority of those surveyed (48.7 per cent) believe that their family’s economic situation has worsened over the last five years. This result is similar to that recorded in 2013 (48.7 per cent). The same applies to the one-third (36.2%) for whom the situation has remained unchanged (38.7% in 2013) and the 15.1% who have, on the other hand, seen an improvement (12.7% in 2013). When analysing the individual regions, some significant variations can be observed. Whilst in Trentino-Alto Adige, far more so than elsewhere, the population perceives a further deterioration in their economic circumstances, rising from 41.7 per cent (2013) to 72.4 per cent (2015); conversely, in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, the trend over the two-year period appears to have improved slightly, as the proportion of those who have experienced a deterioration has fallen (from 41.7% to 30.8%) whilst the proportion of those who have seen no change has risen (from 41.6% to 66.6%). In Veneto, there were no substantial changes in the proportion of those who saw their economic situation worsen (50.6 per cent, compared with 48.9 per cent in 2013), but rather there has been a decrease in the proportion of those whose situation remained unchanged over the two-year period (from 37.4% to 31.9%), in favour of those experiencing an improvement (from 13.8% to 17.5%). Veneto therefore appears more dynamic than its two neighbouring regions. It is obviously too early to observe the economic impact on households of the new course that has only just begun; nevertheless, this result gives rise to two initial, ambivalent assessments. The first is that the downsizing effect has affected a large proportion of people in the north-east, dividing them into, on the one hand, those who have experienced a decline in their circumstances (48.7 per cent) and, on the other, those whose circumstances have remained unchanged or improved (51.3 per cent). The second observation is that, over the years, the situation has remained essentially stagnant. Turning our attention to the resources available to households, the analysis is similar to the previous one. 62.0 per cent of people in the north-east consider their disposable household income sufficient to cover monthly expenses (compared with 63.4 per cent in 2013), whilst just under a third (30.0 per cent) do not (35.3 per cent in 2013). In this case, Friuli Venezia Giulia shows an improvement, rising from 54.5 per cent (2013) to 83.3 per cent (2015), followed by residents of Trentino-Alto Adige (77.4 per cent, compared with 71.4 per cent in 2013), whilst in Veneto, disposable income has not changed substantially (61.0 per cent, compared with 63.6 per cent in 2013).
By combining the assessment of the economic situation with that of monthly income, we obtain a composite indicator that provides a snapshot of the circumstances of people in the north-east. The largest group consists of the ‘ants’ (54.1 per cent), a figure slightly higher than in 2013 (41.7 per cent) – that is, those who have maintained their standard of living and whose income is sufficient to cover their monthly expenses. This is the section of the middle class that has seen its purchasing power decline, adopting a more frugal and selective approach to spending. This group is predominantly made up of women, younger people (under 24), older people (over 55), pensioners and students, as well as residents of Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Trentino-Alto Adige. The second group consists of the ‘disadvantaged’ (23.5 per cent), a proportion similar to that of 2013 (23.1 per cent). These are households experiencing a deterioration in their economic situation, with a monthly income insufficient to cover current expenses. This group is predominantly made up of men, the middle age group (45–54 years), those in employment and housewives, people with a low level of education, and residents of the Veneto region. The other two groups are smaller in size but of similar significance: the ‘well-off’ (13.1 per cent, down from 12.9 per cent in 2013) and the ‘eroded’ (9.3 per cent, down from 12.2 per cent in 2013). The former are those who, despite the crisis, have improved their financial situation over the last five years and whose monthly income is more than sufficient to cover their essential expenses. Within this group we find the younger age groups (25–44 years old), managers, technical staff and manual workers, those with a university degree, and those living in Trentino-Alto Adige and Veneto. The second group comprises those whose financial situation is similar to or better than in the past, although their income does not cover all their expenses. This group includes the youngest age group (25–44 years old), the unemployed and those living in Friuli-Venezia Giulia (although their numbers have fallen since 2013).
A few tentative positive signs are emerging. Households have adopted a different approach to spending: moderation and selectivity are the guiding principles they have adopted to cope with the difficulties. Now that confidence has begun to take hold, we must counter the ‘zero-point-something’ syndrome, which risks prolonging the road to a full recovery. The path forward is clear. We need a locomotive capable of pulling all the carriages.
Daniele Marini
