It is a cautious attitude that of the population of the North-East towards the future, despite the fact that the production system and labour market are showing signs of awakening. The feeling is that in this part of Italy, more than elsewhere, caution tends to prevail over the objective data that official surveys testify to. In fact, various sources note that businesses and the world of work have resumed churning out positive signs. The same indicators of business confidence bear a plus sign in front. The recent Christmas festivities, tourism and the start of sales have shown interesting results. These indications, however, are contrasted by other still negative signs. Critical and difficult situations are emerging all the time: company crises, redundancies, unemployment, however, with higher percentages than in the past. All this suggests that we are not yet faced with an upturn in the entire economic system, which affects all sectors homogeneously, but is patchy.
Finegil Newspapers, 31 January 2016
Courier of the Alps, 31 January 2016
The Little One, 31 January 2016
Messaggero Veneto, 31 January 2016
Situations of dynamism are counterbalanced by others of criticality. Nonetheless, at last, after long years of decline and depression, it seems that the economic machine has started to march again. Still slowly and uncertainly. However, as Prime Minister Renzi and the government claim, several reforms have been deliberated and are being implemented, others are in the pipeline. Therefore, the direction is to persevere in the reforming action and impart confidence to consolidate the recovery. This sort of pincer manoeuvre (reforms and confidence), however, suffers from a time lag between, on the one hand, the data on the economy and the implementation of reforms and, on the other hand, the actual effects and the public perception of the benefits obtained. How much, then, of the positive outcomes witnessed by economic performance reverberate on citizens' perceptions? To what extent do they help perceive the exit from the crisis tunnel? The North-Eastern population seems to feel a change in the climate less quickly than what is actually happening in the production system (Community Media Research). The reason for this is provided by a mix of elements. On the one hand, changes in consumption behaviour, which have become more selective, have allowed them to better withstand periods of economic difficulty. For another, there is an inherent propensity of households to save. For another, the uncertainty of the overall picture is still high, containing the propensity to risk. Thus, while still today about two out of three northeasterners (64.3%) predict that it will take more than one and a half years to get out of the crisis, in 2014 66.5% thought in the same way. Thus, the time horizon of the end of the tunnel has remained substantially unchanged, while in the rest of the country it has shrunk (from 68.2% in 2014 to 53.6%). On the contrary, those who believe that the economic recovery is already underway are still a marginal part (2.5%), in substantial stability with what was recorded in 2014 (1.4%), while in Italy it grew from 2.2% (2014) to 8.0%. So, caution is never too much, seems to be the motto of the Northeasterners.
Wanting to identify a summary result and analysing the outcomes in more detail, we obtain four profiles of respondents with respect to the exit from the crisis. The 'pessimists', who believe that the end of the difficulties will not come until the end of 2017 at the earliest (64.3%), make up the majority, broadly in line with what was observed in 2014 (66.5%). Pessimism appears more widespread among the younger generations entering the labour market (25-34 years old), pensioners, workers and those living in Trentino Alto Adige. In contrast, the 'optimists' similarly remain a stable share (9.0%, 9.1% in 2014) and believe the recovery is already underway or, at most, see the exit from the tunnel by the end of 2016. In this group we meet the youngest generation (up to 34 years), the entrepreneurs. In particular, the inhabitants of Friuli Venezia Giulia show more positive expectations. The third group is represented by the "cautious" (14.1%), the only one to show an increase compared to 2014 (9.5%): they expect the end of the crisis within 18 months, an opinion widespread among the youngest (up to 24 years old) and housewives, among the residents of Friuli Venezia Giulia and Veneto. Finally, the share of 'uncertain', those who cannot give a time limit to the end of the crisis, is slightly decreasing over time (14.9%, 12.6% in 2014).
Caution and prudence seem to characterise the orientation towards the future on the part of the inhabitants of the Northeast. When we will actually emerge from the tunnel of the crisis is difficult to predict, and no one is able to foreshadow it exactly. Because uncertainty is perhaps one of the few certainties we have today. But in a horizon that is changing so fast, all the more reason why we need confidence, a narrative and a design for the country's future: to be built with responsibility.
Daniele Marini
