A sluggish recovery, a dampened sense of dynamism: they sound like oxymorons, but this is the outlook Italians envisage for their families and for the economy in the coming years. On the other hand, one cannot blame them. Listening to the news coming from the financial markets and economic institutions, there is little cause for optimism. The stock market is volatile and unstable; global growth forecasts are positive, but are being progressively revised downwards. Some of the so-called BRICS countries – which until recently were driving the global economy (Russia, Brazil) – are struggling, and even China – which, whilst continuing to develop – has seen its momentum slow. International events (Syria, migration, terrorism, etc.) certainly do nothing to simplify the overall picture. Looking at Italy, GDP forecasts are positive, but have been revised downwards. Furthermore, the situation of certain local banks, which have squandered substantial resources belonging to households and businesses, is weighing heavily. It is easy to see how, in the eyes of the public, the overall picture is still marked by considerable uncertainty. And with uncertainty comes a greater degree of caution and prudence.
La Stampa, p.1, 29 February 2016
La Stampa, p. 9, 29 February 2016
Especially if, following the wave of change brought about by the Renzi government with its reforms and promises, the results are slow to materialise in a systematic way or are not as striking as expected. Of course, the responsibility does not lie solely with the government, because the problems inherited have roots that stretch far back in time, and the European institutional context, with its bureaucratic and political constraints, does little to help resolve the issues facing the country. Nevertheless, the ‘zero-point-something’ syndrome is preventing the early signs of recovery – which have indeed been recorded in recent months – from taking off quickly and steadily. In December 2015, 43.3 per cent of Italians considered their economic circumstances to be the same or better than five years earlier, a figure almost identical to that recorded in 2013 (42.1 per cent). And just over half stated that their monthly income was sufficient to cover their everyday expenses (57.4 per cent, compared with 56.1 per cent in 2013). In other words, the picture of a broadly stable country.
If we ask Italians what they foresee for their own future and that of the country’s economy in the coming years, the result is no different – in fact, it is even more pessimistic. Overall, almost two-thirds (61.9%) of those surveyed expect their own wealth and that of their families to remain stable rather than increase, whilst the remaining third (33.4%) believe there will be a further deterioration. The economy of the region in which they live is not viewed any more favourably – quite the opposite: around two-fifths (39.3%) foresee stability and an improvement, but as many as 51.1% expect the situation to worsen. The outlook for Italy is thought to be slightly better: almost half (46.4 per cent) hope for a stable and growing economy, but a nearly equivalent proportion (43.1 per cent) expect further difficulties. The outlook for the European economy appears to be the most favourable of all: 56.9 per cent expect it to grow in particular.
So, for Italians, economic conditions will improve abroad, in other European countries; they will remain broadly stable for themselves and their families, but will not improve significantly for Italy and, above all, for their own region. This picture, however, not only reflects the image of an Italy that is still struggling to get back on track decisively – at least in the public’s perception. Moreover, compared with 2014 – a year of sweeping change (the ‘scrapping’ of the old system, as you will recall) – we are now witnessing the emergence of a dormant enthusiasm, more inclined towards concern than optimism. Indeed, a comparison with the findings from 2014 highlights a shift in public sentiment, marking a decline.
By analysing the responses provided, it is possible to identify four profiles among the respondents. The ‘optimists’ account for one-fifth of those surveyed (21.9 per cent), but their proportion was significantly higher in 2014: 34.3 per cent. This group comprises those who, across all dimensions, anticipate economic improvement and, proportionally, are concentrated in north-western Italy – the region where the economy has undergone the most significant transformations in recent years. However, there are two more prominent groups. The first is the ‘wait-and-see’ group (34.9 per cent, down from 39.2 per cent in 2014), comprising those who expect conditions to remain stable or improve slightly in the future. The second group consists of the ‘concerned’ (32.8 per cent), a figure that has risen sharply compared with 2014 (21.7 per cent), and includes those who tend to take a pessimistic view of future economic conditions – a perspective that is particularly widespread in the north-east and amongst the younger generations. Finally, there are the ‘pessimists’ (10.4 per cent), a marginal group but one that has grown since 2014 (4.8 per cent), who foresee a substantial, widespread decline. Thus, Italians are primarily ‘wait-and-see’ types, cautious about the future of the economy; the ranks of the ‘concerned’ – those who fear a worsening of difficulties – are growing, whilst the number of ‘optimists’ is shrinking.
Given that Italians’ perception of economic conditions has remained unchanged in recent years, a more cautious outlook on the future can certainly be attributed to the uncertainty of the general situation, but in particular to the slow pace at which changes actually materialise. This is down to the gap between words and deeds. Prime Minister Renzi is rightly endeavouring to present a positive narrative, which is useful for charting the course ahead. But between an enthusiastic attitude and pessimism, there is an approach of (healthy) realism that must be taken into account.
Daniele Marini
