Italy is no longer the sick man of Europe, as Prime Minister Matteo Renzi claims. And several recent figures - albeit timidly - testify to an ongoing trend reversal: consumer and business confidence, the labour market, industrial districts and exports. In short, after years of numbers with negative signs, positive ones are appearing from several sides. All results to be reinforced, still weak and discontinuous, but encouraging on the road taken, all to be consolidated. But if we are no longer sick, we are nonetheless struggling to shake off the zero-point syndrome. This is the mark of the current phase: the slowness with which we are recovering. Let's be clear, we are in good company in Europe. But compared to others, our disease has an origin that goes back further in time, without anyone having been able to prepare the necessary cure in time. Thus, today recovering from the disease is more complicated, it takes time: the convalescence is, and will be, long.
La Stampa p. 1, 21 December 2015
La Stampa p. 9, 21 December 2015
The survey on the economic conditions of Italians also testifies to this situation. The majority of respondents (56.7%) believe that their family's economic situation has worsened over the past five years. And it is a substantially similar result to that found in 2013 (57.9%). The same applies to the one third (33.0%) who maintained an unchanged situation (it was 31.4% in 2013) and the 10.3% who experienced an improvement (10.7% in 2013). It is of course too early to observe the economic effects on households of the new course that has just begun, but nonetheless this result leads to two initial ambivalent assessments. The first is that the downsizing effect has involved a large number of Italians, polarising on the one hand those who have suffered downsizing (56.7%) and, on the other, those who have maintained or improved their condition (43.7%). The second consideration is that in the crisis years the situation has remained substantially frozen. Shifting attention to the side of the resources available in the family, some modest positive indications are discernible, but the analysis is similar to the previous one. 57.4% consider the family disposable income sufficient to cover the month's expenses (it was 56.1% in 2013), while for just over a third (36.8%) it is not (41.3% in 2013).
Adding the assessment on economic situation to that on monthly income, we obtain a summary indicator that photographs the condition of Italians. The largest group is made up of 'ants' (52.9%), slightly up on 2013 (47.6%), i.e. those who have maintained their condition and their income is sufficient to cover their monthly expenses. This is the share of the middle class that has seen its purchasing power shrink, implementing a behaviour inspired by sobriety and selectivity in purchasing behaviour. This is where the female component, the youngest (under 24 years) and the most mature (over 55 years), pensioners and students are to be found. The second group is made up of the 'deprived' (31.0%), which is timidly declining compared to 2013 (35.0%). These are households whose economic condition is deteriorating and whose monthly income is insufficient to meet current expenses. They are mainly affected by men, the middle age group (45-54 years), those active at work and housewives, and those with low educational qualifications. More contained, and with a similar weight, are the other two groups: the 'affluent' (8.0%, they were 10.0% in 2013) and the 'eroded' (8.1%, they were 7.4% in 2013). The former are those who, in spite of the crisis, have increased their economic condition in the last five years and their monthly income is more than sufficient for necessary expenses. Within this group we meet the youngest age groups (25-44), executives, technicians and manual workers, those who reside in the North East and have a university degree. The second group includes those whose economic condition is similar or better than in the past, but whose income does not cover all expenses. In this group we include the youngest (25-44 years), the unemployed and those residing in the South.
Some timid positive signs are emerging. Now that the climate of confidence has begun to take shape, it is necessary to counteract the 'zero-turn' syndrome that risks prolonging the convalescence for too long. Especially in a sick person who has been in plaster for too long and is struggling to get back on his feet. The treatments are known. What is needed is a doctor who intervenes decisively.
Daniele Marini
