A slowdown: it sounds like an oxymoron, but this is the outlook that people in the north-east envisage for their families and the economy in the coming years. On the other hand, one cannot blame them. Listening to the news coming from the financial markets and economic institutions, there is little cause for optimism. The stock market is volatile and unstable; global growth forecasts are positive, but are being progressively revised downwards. Some of the so-called BRICS countries – which until recently were driving the global economy (Russia, Brazil) – are struggling, and even China – which, although it continues to grow – has seen its momentum slow. International events (Syria, migration, terrorism, etc.) certainly do nothing to simplify the overall picture. Turning to Italy, GDP estimates are positive but lower than forecast. Furthermore, the situation of certain local banks, which have squandered substantial resources belonging to households and businesses, weighs heavily. It is easy to see how, in the eyes of the public, the overall picture is still marked by considerable uncertainty. And as uncertainty grows, so does the need for caution and prudence. This is particularly true if, following the wave of change brought about by the Renzi government with its reforms and promises, the results are slow to materialise systematically or are not as striking as expected.
Messaggero Veneto, 6 March 2016
Finegil newspapers, 13 March 2016
Corriere delle Alpi, 13 March 2016
Of course, the responsibility does not lie solely with the government, because the problems inherited have roots that stretch far back in time, and the European institutional framework, with its bureaucratic and political constraints, does little to help resolve the issues facing the country. Nevertheless, the ‘zero-point’ syndrome is preventing the early signs of recovery – which have indeed been observed in recent months – from taking off quickly and steadily. In December 2015, 51.3 per cent of people in the north-east considered their economic circumstances to be the same or better than five years earlier, a figure identical to that recorded in 2013 (51.3 per cent). And just over half stated that their monthly income was sufficient to cover their everyday expenses (62.0 per cent, compared with 63.4 per cent in 2013). In other words, this reflects a country that is essentially stable.
If we ask the public what they foresee for their own future and that of the country’s economy in the coming years (Community Media Research), the results do not differ; in fact, they are even more pessimistic. Overall, almost two-thirds (61.9%) of those surveyed expect their own wealth and that of their families to remain stable rather than increase, whilst the remaining third (33.4%) believe there will be a further deterioration. The economy of the area in which they live is not viewed any more favourably – quite the contrary: around two-fifths (39.3%) foresee stability and an improvement, but as many as 51.1% expect the situation to worsen. The outlook for Italy is thought to be slightly better: almost half (46.4 per cent) hope for a stable and growing economy, but a nearly similar proportion (43.1 per cent) expect further difficulties. The outlook for the European economy is the most positive of all: 56.9 per cent expect it to grow in particular. Thus, for people in the north-east, economic conditions are expected to improve abroad, in other European countries; they will remain broadly stable for themselves and their families, but will not improve significantly for Italy and, above all, for their own region.
This picture, however, not only reflects the image of a North-East that is still struggling to get back on track in a decisive manner, at least in the eyes of the public. Moreover, compared with 2014 – a year of sweeping change (the ‘scrapping’ of the old guard, as you will recall) – we are now witnessing the emergence of a subdued enthusiasm, more inclined towards concern than optimism. Indeed, a comparison with the findings from 2014 highlights a shift in sentiment – for the worse. By analysing the responses provided, it is possible to identify four profiles among the respondents. The ‘optimists’ account for one-tenth of those surveyed (12.6 per cent), but their numbers were significantly higher in 2014: 30.7 per cent. This group comprises those who, across all dimensions, anticipate economic improvement and, proportionally, are most numerous in Friuli Venezia Giulia (37.4 per cent). However, there are two more prominent groups. The first is the ‘concerned’ (47.1 per cent), a marked increase compared with 2014 (24.0 per cent), and comprise those who tend to take a pessimistic view of future economic conditions – a perspective particularly widespread in Veneto (52.3 per cent) and amongst the younger generations. The second group consists of the ‘wait-and-see’ group (28.3 per cent, down from 40.1 per cent in 2014), that is, those who expect conditions to remain stable or improve slightly in the future. This group is particularly prevalent among residents of Trentino and South Tyrol (97.4 per cent). Finally, the ‘pessimists’ (12.0 per cent), a marginal group but one that has increased since 2014 (5.2 per cent), who foresee a substantial, widespread decline and are particularly prevalent in Veneto (14.4 per cent). Consequently, people in the north-east are mainly ‘concerned’ – those who fear that difficulties will intensify in the future – whilst both the ‘wait-and-see’ group, who are cautious about the future of the economy, and the ‘optimists’ are on the decline.
Given that perceptions of economic conditions have remained unchanged in recent years, a more cautious outlook on the future can certainly be attributed to the uncertainty of the general context, but in particular to the slow pace at which changes actually materialise. This is due to the gap between words and deeds. Prime Minister Renzi is rightly endeavouring to present a positive narrative, which is useful for charting the course ahead. But between an enthusiastic attitude and pessimism, there is a (healthy) realistic approach that must be taken into account.
Daniele Marini
